Well, I think house prices won’t be coming down for long, although they really need to drop by at least 50% for any kind of normal affordability to happen here.

Canada is now so incredibly dependent on real estate as our only growth industry that much larger price drops will cause a near-existential threat to all levels of govt and to banks & the CMHC, and therefore won’t be tolerated. I think the BoC is close to their terminal rate, although real rates are still deeply negative. The intense pressure will soon be on the BoC to not only stop raising, but actually start cutting rates again in just a few months. So, those potential sellers holding out for lower rates to list will probably be right :-(.

There’s what the BoC SHOULD do, which is aggressively target inflation until it’s firmly back to near-zero and then NEVER drop interest rates below inflation again, and there’s what they WILL do, which is fold and go back to ZIRP again, permanently — inflation and the CAD be damned.

I have no confidence whatsoever in either the BoC or the Trudeau government to resist the painful wailing of the overindebted homeowers, politicians, real estate industry insiders, and all of their lobbyists losing their shirts, and actually stand firm on interest rates until inflation is under control.

Also, with this dangerously-overindebted country, it won’t take much longer of these almost-normal interest rates to cause large impacts or a financial crisis, so inflation will likely come down quite quickly in 2023, or at least get going enough in the right direction that the interest rates will be quickly slammed back to 0%.

I’ve now given up on ever owning a home in Canada again – I cannot possibly compete against the incredible corruption at all levels of government, the money launderers, the speculators, and the FOMO crowd all pushing hard to get real estate prices back up to some of the highest levels in the world. Fortunately with no debt, we can manage the high inflation, but many others cannot, and they unfortunately will bear the burden of permanently high inflation here just to support house prices.

I plan to leave Canada in the next few years to go somewhere with a more reasonable cost of living, and I can’t understand how the Trudeau idiots can keep scamming immigrants to come here and sell their souls to support our real estate market. Hopefully they’ll start to see through it and realize that there’s no benefit to come here with some of the highest cost of living in the world, when there’s so many better countries to immigrate to.

well you will be offered MAID – especially if you are a veteran – it is so very dysfunctional – we all need to speak up loud and clear – this mess is unacceptable

The values will fall but they will rise once again when the supposed 1.5 million New to Canada immigrants come pouring over the border in the next 24 – 36 months. First thing a new immigrant needs is a roof over their head.

Putting aside the global market cooldown, in combination with unaffordable cost of funds to finance Canadian real estate, the surefire way to cool the housing market and bring real estate values in line with affordability is to reduce demand…period. How is that done…? By clawing back immigration for the next two -three years and match it to new-build housing starts…its not rocket science…just common sense.

Canada builds between 190K to 250K new homes per year on average, and this number will be in decline over the next 12 to 24 months due to “cost to build” vs “reduced profit” as home values decrease. Builders will not build if they cannot make a profit. Municipalities will not shoulder the cost of infrastructure (water/sewers/roads/utilities) to new developments if Development Fees are reduced or waived, as is the case with Doug Ford’s “Build Ontario” plan.

And the feds are heavily reliant on the immigrant vote and without this, they stand a high chance of losing their grip on power. They really painted themselves into a corner with all this crazy money printing, and shit is about to get really bad for alot of people.

Good luck, Peace and Health to all out there… Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

At the end of September, 2022 the total debt outstanding in Canada (bottom line of the Statistics Canada credit market summary data table) was $10.904 trillion. At the end of September, 2021 the total debt outstanding was $9.902 trillion. In the 1 year period from the end of September, 2021 to the end of September, 2022 it increased by $1.002 trillion. This is an increase of 10.1%.

Canadian total (household, business, and all levels of government) debt numbers as of the end of September, 2022

https://owecanada.blogspot.com/2022/12/canadian-total-household-business-and.html

Still double the price of buying in the US and you can actually find healthcare there, as opposed to the free healthcare that’s unavailable unless you’re on your deathbed.

This is markets 101, but in a bubble no one wants to discuss rational market movements, they’re all just precursors for why it goes up or why going up is around the corner.