But check out the February, March seasonal increases in home sales every year… this is the strongest time of the year for real estate historically in Canada. The seasonal increase can still happen in a gradual bear market. The fundamentals in Canadian real estate demand do not support ongoing price growth to the end of Spring or into the Summer. Not to mention the Canadian banks supporting investors and end-users of shelter alike with unprecedented amortization extensions and negative amortization. 30 % of Canadian residential mortgages have been underwater for months. Banks decide if they let people default in this case, and they collectively decided not to allow that on their books. I think they hope for a pivot to rates just like investors. They hope something else in the economy breaks first and badly enough to save them before anyone notices the garbage loans they are holding.

My understanding is that the great majority of mortgages aren’t renewing until 2025, so not sure how much of an impact renewal will have this year.

So far houses are selling for well over asking in the GTA and outside of the GTA – ever since Easter it is like spring housing fever all over again. It is nauseating. Even HouseSigma estimates have “suddenly” risen, making me question the legitimacy of sites like HouseSigma that give exuberant estimates for listed houses that once sold, drop like a thud in value a few months later when HouseSigma posts a new estimate. Listing agents are pulling all sorts of scams – sigh – will they ever learn to do an honest job? Ontario’s housing market is shady business.

Yes indeed, May,June,July will be very interesting indeed.