Correct. Household debt as percentage of GDP is about 80% in US, down from around 100% in 2008. In Canada, we are at 101.5%. We’ve gone opposite directions over the past decade.

If crash happen it will hurt ordinary hard working Canadian the most. Not foreign speculators.

Which is precisely what our concern has been all along. I’m pretty sure none of us shows up here to express concern about the welfare of foreign speculators. However, you seem to think that we have an almost moral obligation to remain positive because a crash will hurt ordinary people. That’s exactly the sort of head in the sand attitude that got us to this point. It’s gonna hurt ordinary people whether we’re positive or not. The least we could do is warn them.

Regardless of whether or not your property is almost paid off, Toronto has one of the worst price-rent metrics in the world. Would it not make more sense to sell in Toronto, then purchase maybe 2 or 3 times the rental units in a smaller city where price-rent metrics are more favourable? You seem entirely unwilling to question the wisdom or remaining invested in Toronto. Which just convinces me all that much more of how bad the bust will be. Even the allegedly moneyed landlord class does not seem to have any clue what might be coming down the pipeline.

Not going to sell….my mortgage is almost paid off and I get lot from rent…I believe in our economy and I think we as a country will be fine. Be positive my friend. If crash happen it will hurt ordinary hard working Canadian the most. Not foreign speculators.

We’re sitting on the biggest credit bubble in Canadian history. Debt levels are through the roof. Yet salaries have hardly budged. If you think there are no consequences for that, then you are ignoring the reality in front of your face. If you really are sitting on two properties purchased in Toronto in 2009, then for God’s sake put them on the market and take your profits. You’ve made a fortune in property appreciation over the past 9 years! Why leave that money sitting on the table? Just to prove to people that they’re still wrong about a potential housing bust? Cashing in your chips and taking your money to the bank will serve you a lot better than coming here to argue that prices won’t crash. You’re preaching to the unconvertible. You’re losing money and arguments every time you delay selling to make another post here. Now get your realtor on the phone and list while you are still sitting on a good profit.

I think a few people, including myself are trying to figure out timelines the “Great Toronto Crash”. If you look historically, at the US housing crash, and its timelines. The market peaked around Q2 of 2006. By end of 2006, troubles appeared. Throughout 2007, underlying conditions deteriorated. By end of Q1 of 2008, US declared in mortgage crisis. So that all took about 6-7 Quarters from Q2 of 2006 till Q1 of 2008. Note: in 2007, the equities market was doing well, interest were high, unemployment decent/low, economy seemed fine.

I think the bubble burst in Toronto in Q2 of 2017. By end of 2017, early 2018, problems are arising. As interest rates rise around the world, loans will be repriced, people will have less disposable income and less to spend on debt. As 2018 slogs along, we will get weekly news about price declines, increases in inventory, vacancies, etc.

Problems will start showing when the margin between disposable income and debt shrinks to zero, or goes negative. That’s when people start looking at their home, as their most prized possession, (thinking prices will rebound, and they can sell down the line). So they avoid arrears by hitting savings…. then hitting credit cards …. then exhausting and tapping all forms of money payments that may help (friends and family included). By end of 2018, beginning of 2019 delinquencies start to emerge, esp on HELOC loans.

2018 is akin to 2007 in US market. First half of 2019 is lined up to be like First Half of 2008, crisis mode.

In First half of 2007, no one was thinking about a housing crash, they just saw prices fluctuate,
and were told problems in the housing market were short term.

On top of all that…. factor a recession by mid 2019.

Yes it was in US (Bay Area). But I think similarity is there from what I experience then in US and what I see my parents experienced back in the 80-90’s to what I see now in Toronto . The hardest hit I saw back then was consumer industry, bank and real estate. Car dealership giving out crazy deal just trying make end meet.
Look around in Toronto today and I see most people work in these industries. From what I see, it may be even worse than what happened 10 years ago in US. I went to Toronto Auto show last week and at cafe area during lunch time, I overheard two car salesman chatting about flipping condos. One of the salesman is so proud and brag openly about how easy to make a 6 figure salary as a car sales these days and he put his money on 3 condos. 2 of them already rented out on negative cash flow. And one more to be close in a year. I know more than enough of friends and families in Toronto in the same boat and think RE will never go down. All of them share the same mentality of thinking they are RE genius and have some special tricks/skills to pick the best deal in town and making loads of money. It is easy to say this time is different but in reality most people react irrationally when comes to personal finance.

Unlike the 1989 bubble, where the runup was scarcely 3 years, the run up this has allowed time for a really significant over-dependence on real estate to build up.

“Limited supply and snowy weather were two factors hampering this activity.” March 2017 – Dan Morrison, Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) President.

Excited to see what new pile of b.s. REBGV will throw against the wall in the next day or so.

Americans are actually saving again. Millennials in the US are not using credit cards like their parents. There is a bit of debt caution in the U.S. from 2008 and Canadians have completely thrown caution to the wind. I think it is actually worse than the U.S. At least they let a little air out of the housing tire. We went full tilt for another 10 years.

I was about to apologize because that was over the top even for Blue’s standard and then I read this:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/s-p-canada-mortgage-credit-1.4551991

And it dawned on me that I shouldn’t care about you. You stumbled here accidentally or with a specific mission.
There is no ‘argument’ to win but the reality of the situation and the fact that good, hard-working Canadians are going to lose a lot and many have already lost too much since the banker fleecing. You can retort however you want but similar to a Liam Neeson/elephant hybrid: I never forget and I won’t stop.
See you tomorrow my friend. And yes I do live in my parent’s basement where I dedicate my time to BD, hamster pant designs and masturbation, natch!