Will see, will see

30 years of the same song and dance. Economist predict and sometimes have to later explain deviations from predictions but overall the prices tend to eventually rise over time especially if location or weather plays a role for aging demographics or both local and international migration.

So much denial and cope in one post.

The bank of mum and dad is closing fast as their property drops in price and they are worried about how much its going to fall and the security of any loan.. The banks are scared of falling prices and negitve equity. They will not be lending too much on property. Look at the UK pulling banks pulling quickly out of morgage availability 2 weeks ago. The US feds rate is now expected to pass 5% Canada is tied to that. so 8 % mortgages are a real possibility. They are over 6% in the Uk and 7% in the US already and still going up . Canada is no different. The canadian dollar is falling and this will need to be corrected.
That requires Canadian rates match or exceed the U.S. interest rate. The market will come back yes but when, Condos in Calgary have been rising recently but they are still selling for less than they did in 2016. Even though they have had lots of new immigrants this year and the price of oil is way up and their economy booming.
Immigrants might spend but they are not stupid. Canada can easilly accommodate more immigrants without new housing. Immigants and Canadians just double up they will not like it but economics sometimes forces them. I bet the number of single occupant apartments is falling drasticlly as rents go up. Warsaw took in several million immigants from Ukraine in 3 months this year with not too many problems.

This sounds a bit desperate. Have you been paying attention to what is brewing in finance globally? All of your “real” investors have daisy chained properties together thinking the gravy train never stops.

How times regularly change.

History repeating itself. Toronto led the housing collapse in the early 90s as well. The only thing different this time is the bubble is significantly larger.

Macroeconomic momentum has slowed across the board. We don’t know if the worst is yet to come but it has been very, very ugly the last 6-7 months.

Investors or ‘multiple property owners’ were responsible for most of the buying activity throughout the pandemic… if anything, investors (real investors) are taking stabs now because they don’t care about interest rates; they care about purchase price.

Major supply increase? In Toronto? In May, CMHC reported 36K new housing units were added in 2021 (in line with 20-year historical average) and the next month CMCH reported that in order to restore housing affordability (however that’s defined) Canada needs to build 3.5 MILLION homes by 2030… labour shortages + a slew of economic factors won’t make that happen. Immigration numbers are smashing expectations and they HAVE money to spend. Whether thats on resale or rentals, cost of living will continue to go up.

Overnight rate needs to hit 8%+ for some sort of ‘major supply increase’. Owners will continue to hold on for dear life because they saw what neighbours sold for in the last 2 years & won’t sell if they don’t need to. If they are not in a position to sell, they will wait.

If things get tough for FTHB who over-extended themselves, hopefully the bank of mom and dad can step in to help (thanks to the $150Billion in generational wealth transfer at the gates) or they rent out the place they overpaid and move back home.

Avg prices will continue to trend downward over the next 6 months or so but I think the worst is over. Spring 2023 will be a different market. Going back to a more ‘seasonal’ real estate cycle.

Its not a trend yet…. but if you look at avg price for semi-detached.. there are month-over-month (Aug->Sept) INCREASES in Toronto (+7.4%), Halton (+3.3%), & Peel region (+1.3%).. where are those headlines?

Once the BoC stops raising rates, there will be an added element of certainty for buyers/sellers and that will just invite even more demand and the new cycle will begin.

Once the headlines change from doom & gloom to “the housing market is heating up” the new cycle will begin.

Low Supply = More Demand = Higher Prices.

Economics 101.

New inventory in GTA has been hitting multi-decade lows.
Will most likely continue to do so leading into spring.

Don’t just read the headlines.

Read the data.