Comments on: Was The Bank of Canada Reckless For Saying Rates Will Be Low Until 2023? https://betterdwelling.com/was-the-bank-of-canada-reckless-for-saying-rates-will-be-low-until-2023/ Canada’s Fastest Growing Real Estate News Source Mon, 14 Nov 2022 16:28:06 +0000 hourly 1 By: Rifleman https://betterdwelling.com/was-the-bank-of-canada-reckless-for-saying-rates-will-be-low-until-2023/#comment-87132 Mon, 14 Nov 2022 16:28:06 +0000 https://betterdwelling.com/?p=22241#comment-87132 In reply to Sweatshop Profiteer.

Liberals said that Harper put his eggs in one basket. Wrong Trudeau doesn’t even have a basket. Housing and government jobs, thats it. Justin and hi father are responsible for most of the debt in this country.

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By: Aisa https://betterdwelling.com/was-the-bank-of-canada-reckless-for-saying-rates-will-be-low-until-2023/#comment-87122 Mon, 14 Nov 2022 04:42:14 +0000 https://betterdwelling.com/?p=22241#comment-87122 In reply to Tim Cooper.

What’s the price of houses then?

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By: Dennis_K https://betterdwelling.com/was-the-bank-of-canada-reckless-for-saying-rates-will-be-low-until-2023/#comment-87119 Sun, 13 Nov 2022 20:35:57 +0000 https://betterdwelling.com/?p=22241#comment-87119 One thing I don’t understand is why did the BoC find a need to lower the overnight rate for the purposes of the pandemic, in the first place? I understand government support for individuals who lost their means of support due to public health measures, but why the overnight rate?

What was this meant to achieve, for individuals and businesses? The overnight rate has been ‘low’ (i.e. < 2%) continually since 2009 (to 2019), and inflation also continually bobbed between 1 – 4% in that timeframe – essentially on-target (source: TradingEconomics.com). So why was there a need to substantially lower interest rates for the purposes of the pandemic? Was there an actual risk of deflation, hence the need for such stimulus?

What was the BoC's intention?
i) to stimulate demand for goods and services?
ii) to allow persons and businesses to refinance outstanding debt at a lower rate, to make
payments easier during the pandemic (and shortly thereafter)?
iii) to allow easier business investment (i.e. R&D, production expansion / efficiency increases, etc.)?

For (i), why would the BoC want to stimulate more demand, based on borrowing, during a time of foreseeable supply constraints? (i.e. during a time when the ability to produce goods in 'normal' quantities per unit time, as well as ability to deliver quantities within 'X' normal time, has been necessarily limited due to public health measures)? For a regular day-to-day, week-to-week life, during the pandemic, why would consumption of regularly needed items drop due to the pandemic (with the exception of transportation fuels)? Why would lowering interest rates help in this regard? Wouldn't dropping interest rates only help with purchasing major items where borrowing is normally required (i.e. homes; cars; maybe large durable household goods i.e. appliances, HVAC; renovation materials; etc.)? Was there really a risk of demand in these sectors really dropping because of the pandemic (and do we know of any historical precedents parallel to this, anywhere in the world)?

Why would we need to stimulate demand in a supply-constrained envirnoment, when clearly a lack of consumption is not a problem in our society, given ever-increasing amounts of consumer debt pre-pandemic?

For (ii) and (iii), do we have any sense how much of total borrowing went into what sectors of the economy, both over the duration of the pandemic, and during (let's say) 5-year averages since 1995? Hopefully that borrowing went to refinancing debt, as well as investments in productivity. It sure would be helpful to see if the borrowing was spent in a manner that was intended, and that intention was to keep people afloat, and business able to rebound easily in terms of fulfilling future demands.

And even if we manage to get inflation back to the 2% (annual) target anytime soon, don't we still need to induce some kind of short-term recession in order to get prices actually back down to where they should have been, prior to inflation soaring above 2%? Meaning, don't we need to see some deflation to have actual prices, which have gone up by to 8%, come back down to where they need to be, particularly given where median wages are?

Obviously I have no economics or finance training, but these are the basic questions that I find myself asking.

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By: Gerald Silva https://betterdwelling.com/was-the-bank-of-canada-reckless-for-saying-rates-will-be-low-until-2023/#comment-87118 Sun, 13 Nov 2022 19:23:06 +0000 https://betterdwelling.com/?p=22241#comment-87118 In reply to Dumb as Dogshit!.

I agree. Here is my opinion: I have seen many Governors of BoC in the past 50 years.
Starting with: Gerald Bouey, who handled (1980s inflation with very high interest rates, getting the lead from the US Treasury secretary Paul Volker). And then came John Crow, Gord Thiessen, David Dodge, Mark Carney, Stephen Poloz who did not have to face what Governor Tiff Macklem inherited.
Governor Tiff Macklem walked into this job with his team in the beginning of Covid-19 Pandemic, without any knowledge of what is about to unfold. His job was, like a good parent would say, everything is going to be alright. He inherited a huge war. A Currency War. His job is to keep the Canadian dollar from falling, not real estate. If he fails to do so, we will import massive inflation from our trading partners because of the US reserve currency status.
I had a very dim view of Governor Macklem. Now I think, he is a man with balls of Steel and a knight in shining Armour who is defending our currency, and the Country.
I am a person from Ceylon (Now Sri Lanka) who came to Canada 50 years ago who learnt and still learning how this country operates.
I take my cap off to Governor Macklem, and his team for doing a splendid job.
Only the generations going forward will see what BoC has done and thank BoC.

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By: Gerald Silva https://betterdwelling.com/was-the-bank-of-canada-reckless-for-saying-rates-will-be-low-until-2023/#comment-87117 Sun, 13 Nov 2022 18:28:25 +0000 https://betterdwelling.com/?p=22241#comment-87117 In reply to El.

People were on high speed, not BoC. When try to brake, will break with great consequences.

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By: Gerald Silva https://betterdwelling.com/was-the-bank-of-canada-reckless-for-saying-rates-will-be-low-until-2023/#comment-87116 Sun, 13 Nov 2022 18:23:12 +0000 https://betterdwelling.com/?p=22241#comment-87116 In reply to Rolf Baumann.

Hate to say this. the Sheppard was on drugs.

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By: Gerald Silva https://betterdwelling.com/was-the-bank-of-canada-reckless-for-saying-rates-will-be-low-until-2023/#comment-87115 Sun, 13 Nov 2022 18:21:03 +0000 https://betterdwelling.com/?p=22241#comment-87115 In reply to Oldguy.

Agree 100%

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By: Stan Tisshaw https://betterdwelling.com/was-the-bank-of-canada-reckless-for-saying-rates-will-be-low-until-2023/#comment-87092 Sat, 12 Nov 2022 15:14:20 +0000 https://betterdwelling.com/?p=22241#comment-87092 Great comments! I’m asking everyone to start sending your questions to the BoC, PM and your MP’s directly. As long as you ask a question they have to reply.

BoC needs to adjust rates objectively based on data not hunches like “transitory inflation”
I asked the BoC & PM to adjust interest rates monthly by as little as a 1 /4 point. Also to expand StatCans “basket of goods” greatly.
Canadians need to demand transparency and objectivity!

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By: CD https://betterdwelling.com/was-the-bank-of-canada-reckless-for-saying-rates-will-be-low-until-2023/#comment-87077 Fri, 11 Nov 2022 22:50:22 +0000 https://betterdwelling.com/?p=22241#comment-87077 Sure, Tiff/BoC made that statement in October 2020, but it was always subject to inflation.

When inflation exceeded 2% target, the BoC was warning throughout 2021 (as early as April 2021) that rates would be going up sooner by 2022H2 (later updated to 2022Q2).

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2021/04/fad-press-release-2021-04-21/

Besides the 1 year warning by BoC, who thinks it’s a good idea to take a VRM when rates are at historic lows?

IIRC, the delta between 5-yr fixed & VRM was only 50bp throughout 2021.
People gambled thinking BoC would blink.

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By: KHURRAM JAMIL BUTT https://betterdwelling.com/was-the-bank-of-canada-reckless-for-saying-rates-will-be-low-until-2023/#comment-87068 Fri, 11 Nov 2022 17:12:48 +0000 https://betterdwelling.com/?p=22241#comment-87068 The question was, was it reckless. Yes, it was. Investors base their projections on the information available to them. THIS is what BoC told the mkt in Oct 2020 and then again in Feb 2022. By not giving sufficient time to investors and especially homeowners to readjust their positions and rapidly changing rates several times, the BoC management has exposed their incompetence. Going by the democratic spirit of responsibility, an institution that has the power to determine the economic fortunate of citizens SHOULD by rights be controlled by those citizens, and be answerable for its decisions. BoC’s management have acted like Czars.
From their perspective, I will be just ONE SINGLE data point. From my perspective, my entire life stands irredeemably ruined. I know I will never fully recover. I’m sure they never thought about THAT when fixing “inflation” that they created in the first place.

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