“Not that conversant in economics” exactly.
Not many people are. In fact the majority aren’t. Including myself.
But from what little i know, there is clearly a devaluation of currency. For a home to go from $15k to $1M. Dont be surprised to see it rise even more. Because the dollar you are holding today will be worth less in two to three years. All the amount of time you put in earning that dollar (after taxes of course) will buy you less and less things the longer you hold it.
People who have some money understand that holding their money in the bank to earn “savings” of less than 2% while inflation is going higher and higher than that number, does not incentivize a nation to become savers and not spenders. So people move their money (which will be less valuable in 2-5 years) into the thing that they believe will be more valuable in 2-5 years. Cant blame people for doing that simple thing, because its not fair to be effectively told the time you spent making your money will be worth less in 2-5 years. So more and more people buy assets the “protect” their hard earned money (which is really just a representation of their labour time), and of course the demand increases the price.

And we wonder why theres a wealth gap.

TOTEM showing more risk and doing something about it are two different things.

It was ok time to buy real estates from 2018-2019 but not now.
The best time to buy stocks passed.

Oh, they JUST realized that debt can contribute to higher home prices? Really? These are scholars getting paid how much to run the system? How quick would you be fired for being an incompetent ass at your job? 15 days? Not for these great honourable leaders of ours, they simply update the “model” every 15 years… ive been saying this for yearrrrs, even back when everyone was complaining and debating about “foreign buyers influencing the home prices”: interest rates and more money printing (devaluing your today dollars) forces people to make investments they otherwise wouldn’t, and therefore speculating and treating homes like investment tools. And what do we do? Turn around and blame the speculators the average everyday people in the middle class not necessarily trying to get RICH, but simply trying to protect their hard earned dollars from losing value due to money printing, due to “monetary policy”. And we blame them, not the people in charge who forgot to account for this in their model 15 years ago. Yes, Lowering interest rates to damn near ZERO might have an effect on people borrowing money to buy homes and outbid each other because a huge majority of people now have Access to MORE money to borrow against their own future, burdening themselves and others for longer and longer.
I know, lets bring in 35 or 40year mortgages next…

And maybe in another 15 years they will also update their model to account the increase in monetary supply (money) by 25% in one year. I can’t wait. We are so lucky to have such smart folks in charge. You and I are idiots compared to them, monetary policy is not something we would understand.

This is animal farm.

We have to realize the government uses policy to form the models, not the other way around. When you think of it this way, everything starts to make more sense.

asking people to rush and buy even more assets (any kind it seems for you) is exactly what is making the bubble even bigger and dangerous…

Not to mention this is a community that includes other folks with rigorous post graduate technical training as well as extensive industry experience too.

Anytime someone needs to reference institutional brand to support a claim, it should speak volumes about their credibility.

The only thing to “realize” here is that when someone claims certainty about the future state of the world, they do not understand how complex dynamic systems work.

Putting that together, anyone who uses pedigree for influence and then makes a sweeping statement of certainty is contributing to the very systems that got us here in the first place.

Interesting fact, did you know folks mentally picture people with authoritative titles taller than others? That should give you some insights about what psychological tricks people try to play to prove a point. Be careful what you believe, but more importantly, why you believe it.