The Toronto real estate market is on fire again, as buyers send prices on a very large monthly climb. Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) numbers show the composite price index reached a new high in November. The increase in prices for November is one of the biggest in history for the month.
Greater Toronto Real Estate Prices Rise To New All-Time Highs
Greater Toronto home prices reached a new all-time high, according to the benchmark. TREB reported the composite benchmark hit $815,800 in November, up 6.83% from last year. The City of Toronto reached $903,700, up 6.99% from last year. This is an all-time high for the composite, but detached units haven’t returned. Instead, this is largely led by condo apartments, which are increasing nearly double digits once again.
Greater Toronto Benchmark Price
The price of a “typical” composite home across Greater Toronto.
Source: TREB. Better Dwelling.
Home prices in the suburbs and the City are making substantial movements. Both regions are seeing growth higher than the month before. Most notable is the unusually large increase from October to November. This was the second largest monthly increase for November in the history of the benchmark, with only 2016 beating it.
Greater Toronto Benchmark Price Change
The annual percent change of TREB’s benchmark price for all home types.
Source: TREB. Better Dwelling.
More Than Half of Sales Were Sold 10% Lower Than The Benchmark
The median sale price made a significant increase, but it’s still way below the benchmark. TREB’s median sale price was $729,000 in November, up 8.80% from last year. The City of Toronto median sale price was $739,000, up 10.29% from last year. That means half of TREB sold at least 10.29% below the benchmark, and half of sales in the City were sold at least 18.22% below the benchmark. Big gains, but a significant disconnect from the benchmark.
Greater Toronto average sale prices made closer movements to the benchmark. TREB reported an average sale price of $843,637 in November, up 7.01% from last year. The City of Toronto average sale price reached $910,419, up 8.06% from last year. The average is higher, as luxury sales made big gains in volume.
Greater Toronto Average Sale Price Change
The annual percent change of the average sale price of all homes.
Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.
Greater Toronto Real Estate Sales Rise Over 13%, But Still Below Typical
Greater Toronto home sales made a big jump from last year. TREB reported 7,090 sales in November, up 13.42% from last year. The City of Toronto represents 2,718 of those sales, up 6.04% from the same month last year. Even with the big jump, sales still fell 3.85% below the 5-year median volume for the month.
Greater Toronto October Home Sales
The total home sales across TREB by year, for the month of November.
Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.
Greater Toronto Real Estate Inventory Drops Over 27%
New sellers are taking a pause, sending new listings for Toronto real estate lower. TREB reported 8,650 new listings in November, down 17.88% from last year. The City of Toronto represents 3,308 of those listings, down 15.00% from last year. Higher sales and fewer new listings, sent total inventory even lower.
Greater Toronto Sales To New Listings
The number newly listed units per month, in contrast to sales.
Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.
The number of homes for sale dropped to abnormally low levels last month. TREB reported 11,958 active listings in November, down 27.17% from last year. City of Toronto represented 3,918 of the listings, down 20.78% from last year. Active listings are 11.12% lower than the 5-year median for sales. Inventory is much lower than usual for this time of year.
Greater Toronto October Active Listings
The total of active home listings across TREB by year, for the month of November.
Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.
Toronto real estate prices made one of the largest climbs accorded to the benchmark. This comes after a big rise in sales, and lower than usual inventory. It’s almost like the government promising to add more money to the market caused buyers to jump in… and/or sellers to delay for a bigger reward.
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If the benchmark and median sale are that far apart, there’s most likely an issue with the weight of the basket. Distortion from volume adjustment is my guess.
Yes, they covered that with Vancouver’s “recovery” a few months back if I’m not mistaken. Same issue as GDP reports during the Great Recession.
Big drop and major recovery breaks the weighting pretty fast. My guess is we’ll have another completely different set of numbers by this time next year, on revision.
That doesn’t change what buyers are willing to pay right now though. It’s my understand, talking to some brokers and developers, that real estate investors are now almost as much of the market as regular people. Yield chasing for retirement.
“most dramatic job cuts by a Canadian bank in more than 15 years.”
BMO is firing thousands of people. Should mean prices are going through the roof.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/bank-of-montreal-makes-industry-s-deepest-job-cuts-in-years-1.1356633
Insolvencies rising, Federal government is lowering growth targets, immigration papering over poor productivity reports, and now mass layoffs.
I see no reason prices shouldn’t be at an all-time high. hahaha.
All the better to tax you on, my pretties.
https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2019/12/04/mayor-john-tory-pitches-substantial-property-tax-increase-to-fund-transit-and-housing-projects.html
Holy moly, that’s double the increase. To ironically pay for more housing and infrastructure to build more housing.
So… high home prices, you get to pay for the new supply to lower your home prices. Makes sense. *eye roll gif*
Gotta say, I’m like this more balanced approach to numbers BD. Very unbiased. Keep up the good work.
Does anyone actually believe TREB’s numbers?
Actual home prices are falling, and will keep falling for the foreseeable future in the GTA. You are paying less today, than you did a few years ago for the same home. The cartel are amazing (hats off) at distorting the truth.
I don’t agree with the 905 comment. Prices are less than peak 2017, but have creeped up from the basement they were in a year or so ago. I do see bidding wars in my neighbourhood on detached homes priced under $850 000. I am now seeing viewing line ups for homes under $780 000. There are not many listings now.
Do I see $950 000 homes selling for 1.3 million, nope. Those sales have become legends on my modest street.
No one is saying that the single detached market has recovered from its astronomical highs of early 2017 but other market segments have, that has been apparent all along
Most of what I’m seeing is the suburbs rising closer to price than the city. Doesn’t matter where it is, apparently. It’s just rising.
Ahmed that seems to be the case especially in Peel Region,not sure the same applies in York Region but any further breakdown or elucidation would be appreciated
Definitely seems to me like homes are selling like hotcakes in the City proper. The only homes that don’t sell are overpriced / are just crappy enough to not be gut jobs bought by a developer.