Canada is in the midst of an immigration boom, but Ontario is losing ground. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows more non-permanent residents arrived in Q3 2019. A lot more, actually. The net increase of non-permanent residents was the highest of any quarter, going back to the 1970s – the last year calculated by the stat agency. Ontario is a notable exception to this trend, as it’s beginning to see smaller net increases.
Canada Just Saw The Biggest Increase of Non-Permanent Residents Ever
The change for non-permanent residents to Canada hasn’t been higher in a long time – likely ever. The country gained 82,438 non-permanent residents in Q3 2019, up 6.63% from the same quarter a year before. Over the past 12-months, Canada saw an increase of 176,662 non-permanent residents. This is the biggest quarter since at least 1980. Canada has never seen a larger net increase of permanent residents, for as long as Stat Can has tracked the data.
Canada Net Non-Permanent Resident Flow
The net change in non-permanent residents across Canada.
Source: Stat Can, Better Dwelling.
Ontario Is Seeing A Smaller Increase of Non-Permanent Residents
Ontario, which normally captures a large portion of this population, is seeing a drop. The province received 36,478 of the net inflow Q3 2019, down 7.82% from a year before. Over the past 12-months, Ontario represented 78,091 of the net increase of non-permanent residents. This is the weakest Q3 since 2016, and the weakest 12-month period since Q4 2017. It’s still a lot of people, but the trend is showing some signs of tapering.
Ontario Net Non-Permanent Resident Flow
The net change in non-permanent residents across Ontario.
Source: Stat Can, Better Dwelling.
B.C. Is Seeing A Bigger Wave of Non-Permanent Residents
British Columbia (B.C.) on the other hand, is seeing their non-permanent resident numbers swell. The province received 16,413 of the net inflow in Q3 2019, up 6.58% from a year before. Over the past 12-months, B.C. represented 28,257 of the net increase of non-permanent residents. This was both the biggest Q3, and the biggest 12-month period since at least 1980.
B.C. Net Non-Permanent Resident Flow
The net change in non-permanent residents across B.C.
Source: Stat Can, Better Dwelling.
Canada is seeing a large net increase of non-permanent residents – more than any other period on record. It’s interesting to see this number decline in Ontario, the country’s largest province. Despite receiving a fairly large increase, it’s apparently losing attractiveness. Provinces like BC on the other hand, are picking up Ontario’s lost ground.
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Biggest clusters of losses occur at recession. Interesting, considering Canada has been able to saddle people with debt to avoid the impact of recessions for quite some time.
If you’re talking about Ontario, that’s also when real estate prices correct.
What’s really interesting here is people are picking other provinces over Ontario, at least over the past year. Something we’re really seeing over in the east coast these days.
So wait. In Ontario there was a big purge every Q4 until 2015. What happens that changes people from leaving?
Rhetorical question? Ask yourself – what political event occurred in Q4 2015 that might have caused a drastic shift in mass immigration policy?
Notice the explosion in foreign nationals into Canada right after the Trudeau Liberals were elected. Millennials complaining about housing have only themselves to blame. They voted in this government.
Not every immigrant is getting into the housing market SH. And there are more demographics voting liberal than the 20 and 30 somethings. Take off your blinders and you will be able to navigate better. Migration to Canada has more to do with world issues and world politics.
It was the 20- and 30-somethings that delivered the majority (2015) and then plurality (2019) to the Liberals. Voters over 40 went Conservative, particularly in 2019. So I’m not sure what you’re arguing here. The Trudeau Liberals, with their mass immigration and open borders policies, would not be in power were it not for Millennials. I’m not saying this to “bash” Millennials (I am possibly one myself, depending on where one places the cutoff between Gen-X and Mills), it is simply a fact. So whenever a young person in Toronto wonders why prices and rents have exploded since 2015, I would advise that young person to look in the mirror.
“World issues” and “world politics” should not dictate Canada’s immigration policy which is supposed to act in the best interests of CANADIANS, not foreign globalists.
Our absurd 10-year visa program is likely a major enabling factor behind this surge, and I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of the non-PR immigration to BC is from China and Hong Kong and has contributed to the “recovery” (that the real estate cartel is touting) of Metro Vancouver’s real estate market over the last months.