Comments on: The IMF Crunched Numbers On Canadian Real Estate. Here’s How Overpriced It Is https://betterdwelling.com/the-imf-crunched-numbers-on-canadian-real-estate-heres-how-overpriced-it-is/ Canada’s Fastest Growing Real Estate News Source Mon, 21 Oct 2019 15:01:46 +0000 hourly 1 By: Former Canadian https://betterdwelling.com/the-imf-crunched-numbers-on-canadian-real-estate-heres-how-overpriced-it-is/#comment-52932 Mon, 21 Oct 2019 15:01:46 +0000 https://betterdwelling.com/?p=12273#comment-52932 In reply to HBU Consulting.

LOL. Wow. The lunacy of some people is absolutely hilarious.

If fundamentals detach, how are locals expected to continue to live in these markets? You have nearly 25% of industry based just on buying, selling, and warehousing people. The other 75% of industry is just suppose to constantly raise wages to support the other 25%? At what point do people go, you know what – I’m going to the US, because I can pay for health insurance and STILL come up with a lower cost of living?

Spoiler, we saw this in the early 1990s, when locals said screw this, I’m moving to the US after the last “immigrants will come here forever” blew Montreal and Toronto into oblivion, only to see prices recover in 2014.

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By: HBU Consulting https://betterdwelling.com/the-imf-crunched-numbers-on-canadian-real-estate-heres-how-overpriced-it-is/#comment-52919 Sun, 20 Oct 2019 23:26:55 +0000 https://betterdwelling.com/?p=12273#comment-52919 What is discussed in the comment section is mostly true under the assumption that the prices are driven by local market participants; however, this is clearly not the case, at least for places like Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal.

So long as no measures to limit/regulate the foreign flow of capital is implemented, you’ll see the trend continues in a fairly sustainable manner. With the exception of a few months in 2008 and 2012, the prices been skyrocketing over the past two decades; has the real income? No. But, given the political stability, safe communities and the clean environment, Canada continues attracting the wealthiest, those who are not bothered by the fundamentals.

Real estate was never an investment vehicle and a necessity should never become one; however, due to poor policies of many central banks and various governments, it has turned into a solid means of investment and that’s our new reality, like a developing country.

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By: Bay St Guy https://betterdwelling.com/the-imf-crunched-numbers-on-canadian-real-estate-heres-how-overpriced-it-is/#comment-52909 Sun, 20 Oct 2019 14:29:39 +0000 https://betterdwelling.com/?p=12273#comment-52909 In reply to Joe.

Incredibly bad take. Professors aren’t market participants.

The more accurate take is “if fundamentals and data always DON’T prevail, the middle class would be the wealthier than the upper classes.”

If housing were the way to get rich, 68% of Canadians would be the wealthiest class of people, and we wouldn’t have Canadians on Bay St that earn 7-figure salaries renting. Unless you think 68% of the population is perfect at assessing the proper value for assets, and the one-percent (outside of real estate) has a bad take that primary housing a consumption, not an investment.

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By: Canaduh https://betterdwelling.com/the-imf-crunched-numbers-on-canadian-real-estate-heres-how-overpriced-it-is/#comment-52907 Sun, 20 Oct 2019 13:23:45 +0000 https://betterdwelling.com/?p=12273#comment-52907 In reply to Bill.

Oh yes, our unparalleled uniqueness is known throughout the lands. In fact, when a child is born anywhere but here it is not uncommon to hear the parent’s delicately whisper into their child’s ear, “We’re so sorry this isn’t Canada, land of the chosen ones.”

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By: Joe https://betterdwelling.com/the-imf-crunched-numbers-on-canadian-real-estate-heres-how-overpriced-it-is/#comment-52895 Sat, 19 Oct 2019 18:03:46 +0000 https://betterdwelling.com/?p=12273#comment-52895 If fundamentals and data always prevails in reality, professors would be the richest people around.

These numbers only paint a side of reality…the ‘what should be’ idea and does not include many other factors. I stress on immigration being a key driver on why prices continue to remain high and we might see even higher peaks. Regular people that work and pay high taxes in this country get the short end of the stick when immigrants coming from countries with much lower taxes bring in their wealth.

Just one straight forward example, Hong Kong is experiencing a difficult time and if I was a wealthy/better to do middle age person, won’t I try to keep my options open by getting a permanent residence in a country like Canada? If the situation in HK deteriorates, I can simply move my lifetime wealth to Canada and live in a nice house without paying Canadian income taxes throughout my whole life.
I get free healthcare and all the other benefits that Canada provides (more now with every election! Woohoo!). These people when they move over, become ‘semi-retired’, in the sense that they work for lower income jobs that are less stressful and use their wealth to invest in real estate/equity/etc. Their regular income reported from their jobs here do not reflect what they actually make through other investments which may be tax-free depending on the tax treaty.

So when data is being gathered for analysis, of course it shows that real estate is overpriced compared to income levels/affordability levels.

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By: Mike https://betterdwelling.com/the-imf-crunched-numbers-on-canadian-real-estate-heres-how-overpriced-it-is/#comment-52894 Sat, 19 Oct 2019 14:06:48 +0000 https://betterdwelling.com/?p=12273#comment-52894 In reply to Marc.

We are one major catalyst away from prices dropping. This is not sustainable. Businesses will move out of the city cause cost of real estate and salaries will be so high. Most Business is done virtually today, no need for higher expenses in a major city. People will move out further from cores of toronto and Vancouver to maximize quality of life.

Job replacement with machines and a global slowdown are two major issues in our future. This will harms many people and push them to the sidelines of ownership.

At some point in time wealthy people with wealthy assets will have to let others in on ownership or they can’t continue to grow. We live in awkward times with such division of wealth clearly growing but the system also arms the wealthy cause they need consumers. Hence why we are entering negative rate territory and pretty soon will be punished if we save money and incentivized to spend more and more. What a broken ass system. I have enough capital to retire in Thailand on a beach right now in my 30s but can’t even afford a home here in toronto. What are we chasing to be happy? People will wake up.

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By: Bill https://betterdwelling.com/the-imf-crunched-numbers-on-canadian-real-estate-heres-how-overpriced-it-is/#comment-52893 Sat, 19 Oct 2019 13:12:59 +0000 https://betterdwelling.com/?p=12273#comment-52893 The numbers don’t tell the story of how unique Canadian cities are – the level of services, culturual tolerance, diversity, opportunity, safety is far above most cities that are compared with. There are lots of affordable property 1-2 hrs away – yet people ChOOSE to spend what they do to live in downtown Toronto. This type of article has been coming out for over a decade and more will come. Could perhaps consider you aren’t analyzing the whole picture? Lamenting that reality doesn’t follow your data is a very fixed mindset.

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By: Taco Libra https://betterdwelling.com/the-imf-crunched-numbers-on-canadian-real-estate-heres-how-overpriced-it-is/#comment-52881 Sat, 19 Oct 2019 02:24:02 +0000 https://betterdwelling.com/?p=12273#comment-52881 In reply to Questionable.

The “devaluation” is a result of expanded credit print. If you have 10 of something one day, and you divide it into 11 the next, how you think it works?

To get another bump like 2015, credit would have to hit zero, banks would have to lend for fun, and unemployment needs to go to negatives. 😂

Over half the population traded homes in the past 10 years. How fast do you think people upgrade?

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By: Questionable https://betterdwelling.com/the-imf-crunched-numbers-on-canadian-real-estate-heres-how-overpriced-it-is/#comment-52879 Sat, 19 Oct 2019 02:19:43 +0000 https://betterdwelling.com/?p=12273#comment-52879 Guess what else happened in 2014-2015 … Severe devaluation of CAD… There’s your answer. If CAD keeps dropping prices will keep growing.

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By: SUMSKILLZ https://betterdwelling.com/the-imf-crunched-numbers-on-canadian-real-estate-heres-how-overpriced-it-is/#comment-52876 Fri, 18 Oct 2019 23:04:09 +0000 https://betterdwelling.com/?p=12273#comment-52876 Coulda, woulda, shoulda….will be said by our bravery free leaders some day.

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