Today the massive fentanyl epidemic, cheap cocaine and other drugs such as alcohol have likely driven up the number of unemployable people to over 5% and as many as a further 5% are likely functioning substance abusers. That means until we get unemployment numbers of 7%, we are at full employment. Statistics Canada seems a tad lax on trying to get data on the substance abuse and mental health issue but their last data reports when the Conservatives were in power showed a high number of people with either substance abuse or mental health issues or both. These people are more likely to have issues that can affect job performance. Of course we also have regional pockets of low and high unemployment as well.

As the owner of a licensed recruiting agency, I see a profound lack of candidates available today. That is why I have a strong business- because people with job experience or skilled trades are virtually impossible to find. I remember a time when an auto mechanic earned (in todays money) about $85,000 a year. Today I see over $50 per hour commonly and some earning $200,000 per year- a senior executive pay level. Perhaps the most challenging people to find are in that low income bracket of $42-50,000 level. Often the combination of trading on internet marketplaces, dog walking (just an example), a part time server job and either a handyman or nail design painting job can add up to a greater income that a single full time gig. Not having to commute, avoiding taxes, combined with a flexible work schedule learned during Covid shutdowns means there is little incentive at the wages companies have budgeted for to induce people back into “traditional” jobs.

Either way, we have a long way to go until unemployment becomes an issue. That is the same for a recession (especially if oil and gas export numbers remain strong).

In the case of unemployment, the raw data is sample data too, so it’s always been a guess in the best of times.