Canada’s Real Estate Correction Is Just Getting Started, W/ Oxford Econ’s Tony Stillo
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Yes interest rates are going to go down. Not likely. If you have noticed the price of gold recently, its rising fast, in the last month 7 % .Some of that is speculation but the US dollar is collapsing, 10 % in the last 6 months.. Central banks are swapping dollar holdings for gold. To stop the fall of the dollar higher rates will be required, possibly much higher rates than the Fed or Bank of Canada wants. So hold on for the ride.
They know if the rates are reversed, things will go back to the the way they were in Canada. With investors and money launders buying everything up again.
The housing crisis will get even worse than ever.
I think economists are critically lacking in imagination regarding the coming economic damage from the housing crash, especially considering the recent macro backdrop of living through the lowest sustained global interest rates in more than 5000 years of human history. Canada hitting the inflection point on rates could literally mean the destruction of housing as a viable investment in Canada for decades to come. Calling for a “short” or “mild” recession is just wishful thinking that inflation will calm down mostly on its’ own and we can continue pinning rates to the floor and hyper-inflating asset prices again. It’s equally possible inflation will decrease slightly before shooting up again due to the next unforeseen supply shock, war, or other exogenous factor, forcing banks to hike rates even higher.
London telegraph today 16th jan
Central banks risk setting off a financial earthquake with constant rate rises, warns ex-IMF economist
Odds of a major financial crisis are shortening, says Ken Rogoff